{"id":46,"date":"2025-12-07T22:07:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T14:07:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/123.57.154.248\/?page_id=46"},"modified":"2026-04-06T04:43:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T20:43:21","slug":"%e5%ad%a6%e6%9c%af%e6%96%87%e7%ab%a0","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/%e5%ad%a6%e6%9c%af%e6%96%87%e7%ab%a0\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5b66\u672f\u6587\u7ae0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u8fd1\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u77ed\u8bc4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Dollar Upheaval: This Time is Different<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, Robert Richmond, Chenzi Xu<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Safe until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal about Government Debt Safety<\/strong><\/a>, VoxEU (2026), Center for Economic and Policy Research<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Safe until crisis: What 300 years of wars reveal about government debt safety<\/strong><\/a>, VoxEU (2026), Center for Economic and Policy Research<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    I. \u8d22\u653f\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u4e0e\u503a\u52a1\u53ca\u8d27\u5e01\u4f30\u503c<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    “\u4e00\u4f4d\u541b\u4e3b\uff0c\u5f53\u4ed6\u89c4\u5b9a\u5176\u7a0e\u6536\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u7eb8\u5e01\u7f34\u7eb3\uff0c\u4ed6\u4fbf\u56e0\u4e4b\u7ed9\u8fd9\u79cd\u7eb8\u5e01\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002”\u2014\u2014\u4e9a\u5f53\u00b7\u65af\u5bc6\u300a\u56fd\u5bcc\u8bba\u300b<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. US Fiscal Cycle and the Dollar<\/strong><\/a>, <\/strong>Journal of Monetary Economics (2021)<\/em><\/strong> <\/em>[Replication Files]<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Fiscal Cyclicality and Currency Risk Premia<\/strong><\/a>, <\/strong>Review of Financial Studies (2022)<\/em><\/strong> <\/strong>[Replication Files]
      <\/a>Cubist Systematic Strategies Ph.D. Candidate Award for Outstanding Research<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle<\/strong><\/a>, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Econometrica (<\/em><\/strong>2024<\/em><\/strong>)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]<\/a> [Reply to John Cochrane’s Blog Posts]
      <\/a>Featured in       [NBER Digest]<\/strong><\/a>, [Financial Times]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt\/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn’t Bark<\/strong><\/a>, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Journal of Finance (<\/em><\/strong>2024<\/em><\/strong>)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications<\/strong><\/a>, with Zefeng Chen, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Journal of Political Economy (<\/em><\/strong>2025)<\/em><\/strong>
      Cited by       [Economic Report of the President (2025)]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    6. Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt<\/strong><\/a>, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Journal of <\/em><\/strong>Financial <\/em><\/strong>Economy (<\/em><\/strong>Accepted)<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    7. Bond Convenience Yields in the Eurozone Currency Union<\/strong><\/a>, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Rev<\/em><\/strong>iew of Financial Studies<\/em><\/strong> (<\/em><\/strong>Accepted)<\/em><\/strong>
      Cited by       [Philip Lane’s Keynote at Government Borrowers Forum (2025)]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    8. Reserve Asset Competition and the Global Fiscal Cycle<\/strong><\/a>, with Robert Richmond<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    9. Monetary-Fiscal Coordination with International Hegemon<\/strong><\/a>, with Xuning Ding<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    10. When Does Idiosyncratic Risk Generate Asset Bubbles?<\/strong><\/a>, with Xuning Ding<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    11. What Does It Take? Quantifying Cross-Country Transfers in the Eurozone<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0with\u00a0YiLi Chien, Matteo Leombroni and Hanno Lustig
      [Discussion by John Cochrane]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    12. Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic?<\/strong><\/a>, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      II. \u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u4f53\u7cfb\u67b6\u6784<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
      \n

      “\u614e\u4e4b\u614e\u4e4b\uff0c\u60df\u60e7\u65b9\u5f97\u6c38\u5b89\u3002”\u2014\u2014\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u838e\u58eb\u6bd4\u4e9a\u300a\u54c8\u59c6\u96f7\u7279\u300b<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1. Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, Journal of Finance (2021)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]
        <\/a>Cited by         [Economic Report of the President (2022)]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, Review of Economic Studies (2024)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. The Reserve Supply Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policy<\/strong><\/a>, with William Diamond and Yiming Ma, Journal of Financ<\/em><\/strong>ial Economics (<\/em><\/strong>2024<\/em><\/strong>), Editor’s Choice<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]
        <\/em><\/strong> <\/em><\/strong><\/a>Featured in         [NBER Digest]<\/strong><\/a> and [Central Banking]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      4. Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Puzzles<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, and Jialu Sun, Revise and Resubmit at <\/em><\/strong>Econometrica<\/em><\/strong>
        (Old title: Beyond incomplete spanning: Convenience yields and exchange rate disconnect)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      5. China’s Overseas Lending in Global Finance Cycle<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      6. Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      7. Implications of Asset Market Data for Equilibrium Models of Exchange Rates<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      8. Dollar Erosion: Understanding the Loss of Reserve Currency Status<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, Robert Richmond<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      9. Market Incompleteness and Exchange Rate Spill-over<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      10. Quantitative Tightening with Slow-Moving Capital<\/strong><\/a>, with Jialu Sun<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        III. \u56fd\u9645\u8d44\u4ea7\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u672c\u914d\u7f6e<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
        \n

        “<\/em>\u5929\u4e4b\u9053\uff0c\u635f\u6709\u4f59\u800c\u8865\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u4eba\u4e4b\u9053\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\uff0c\u635f\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5949\u6709\u4f59\u3002<\/em>“\u2014\u2014<\/em>\u8001\u5b50<\/em>\u300a\u9053\u5fb7\u7ecf\u300b<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        1. Origins of International Factor Structures<\/strong><\/a>, with Robert Richmond, Journal of Financial Economics (2023)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
        2. A Portfolio Approach to Global Imbalances<\/strong><\/a>, with Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang, Journal of Finance (2024)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]
          <\/em><\/strong> <\/em><\/strong><\/a>Best Paper Award at the Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets
          Nasdaq Award for the Best Paper on Asset Pricing at Western Finance Association<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        3. The Liquidity Premium of Digital Payment Vehicle<\/strong><\/a>, with Zefeng Chen, Management Science (<\/em><\/strong>2024<\/em><\/strong>)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
        4. The Rest of the World’s Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, IMF Economic Review<\/em><\/strong> (2024)<\/em><\/strong>
          Featured in           [MarketWatch]<\/strong><\/a>, [CentralBanking]<\/strong><\/a>, [Hutchins Roundup]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
        5. Understanding the Strength of the Dollar<\/strong><\/a>, with Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang, Journal of Financial Economics (2025)<\/em><\/strong> [Replication Files]
          <\/a>Featured in           [NBER Digest]<\/strong><\/a>, [Kellogg Insight]<\/strong>
          <\/a>Yuki Arai Faculty Research Prize, NYU Stern
          Best Paper Award at the Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        6. International Policy Coordination in a Multisectoral Model of Trade and Health Policy<\/strong><\/a>, with Viral Acharya, Robert Richmond and Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, Revise and Resubmit at the <\/em><\/strong>Journal of International Economics<\/em><\/strong>
          <\/em><\/strong> <\/em><\/strong>Substantial revision of earlier paper           Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
        7. Convenience Lost<\/strong><\/a>, with Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang
          Featured in           [NBER Digest]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          IV. \u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
          \n

          “\u8fc7\u53bb\u4ece\u672a\u6d88\u901d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ece\u672a\u8fc7\u53bb\u3002”\u2014\u2014\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u798f\u514b\u7eb3\u300a\u4fee\u5973\u5b89\u9b42\u66f2\u300b<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          1. Personality Differences and Investment Decision-Making<\/strong><\/a>, with Cameron Peng and Hongjun Yan, Journal of Financ<\/em><\/strong>ial Economics (2024) <\/em><\/strong>[Replication Files]
            <\/a>Featured in             [Wall Street Journal]<\/strong><\/a>, [Yahoo Finance]<\/strong><\/a>, [Manager Magazin]<\/strong><\/a>, [Kellogg Insight]<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
          2. Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field<\/strong><\/a>, with Hongqi Liu, Cameron Peng, and Hongjun Yan, Quarterly Journal of Economics (<\/em><\/strong>2025<\/em><\/strong>)<\/em><\/strong>
            Behavioral Finance Best Paper Award at China Financial Research Conference<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            \u7279\u9080\u64b0\u7a3f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. Safe until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal about Government Debt Safety<\/strong><\/a>, VoxEU (2026), Center for Economic and Policy Research<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            2. The Rise of China as an International Lender<\/strong><\/a>, VoxEU (2025), Center for Economic and Policy Research<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            3. Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field<\/strong><\/a>, VoxEU (2025), Center for Economic and Policy Research<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            4. What Drives Fluctuations in Exchange Rates? An Asset Market Perspective<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, NBER Reporter (2024), National Bureau of Economic Research<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            5. Fiscal Capacity: An Asset Pricing Perspective<\/strong><\/a>, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Annual Review of Financial Economics (2023)<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            6. Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis<\/strong><\/a>, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2022), Brookings Institution<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            7. A Valuation Approach to Government Balance Sheet<\/strong><\/a>, America’s Fiscal and Economic Outlook (2021), Peterson Foundation<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
            8. Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate<\/strong><\/a>, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, AEA Papers and Proceedings (2018), American Economic Association<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              \u8fd1\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u77ed\u8bc4 I. \u8d22\u653f\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u4e0e\u503a\u52a1\u53ca\u8d27\u5e01\u4f30\u503c “\u4e00\u4f4d\u541b\u4e3b\uff0c\u5f53\u4ed6\u89c4\u5b9a\u5176\u7a0e\u6536\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f8b […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":3,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-46","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/46","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/46\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":219,"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/46\/revisions\/219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jiangzhengyang.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}