近期市场短评
- Dollar Upheaval: This Time is Different, with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, Robert Richmond, Chenzi Xu
- Safe until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal about Government Debt Safety, VoxEU (2026), Center for Economic and Policy Research
- Safe until crisis: What 300 years of wars reveal about government debt safety, VoxEU (2026), Center for Economic and Policy Research
I. 财政可持续性与债务及货币估值
“一位君主，当他规定其税收中的一定比例必须以某种纸币缴纳，他便因之给这种纸币赋予了一定的价值。”——亚当·斯密《国富论》
- US Fiscal Cycle and the Dollar, Journal of Monetary Economics (2021) [Replication Files]
- Fiscal Cyclicality and Currency Risk Premia, Review of Financial Studies (2022) [Replication Files]
Cubist Systematic Strategies Ph.D. Candidate Award for Outstanding Research - The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Econometrica (2024) [Replication Files] [Reply to John Cochrane’s Blog Posts]
Featured in [NBER Digest], [Financial Times] - What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn’t Bark, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Journal of Finance (2024) [Replication Files]
- Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications, with Zefeng Chen, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Journal of Political Economy (2025)
Cited by [Economic Report of the President (2025)] - Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Journal of Financial Economy (Accepted)
- Bond Convenience Yields in the Eurozone Currency Union, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Review of Financial Studies (Accepted)
Cited by [Philip Lane’s Keynote at Government Borrowers Forum (2025)] - Reserve Asset Competition and the Global Fiscal Cycle, with Robert Richmond
- Monetary-Fiscal Coordination with International Hegemon, with Xuning Ding
- When Does Idiosyncratic Risk Generate Asset Bubbles?, with Xuning Ding
- What Does It Take? Quantifying Cross-Country Transfers in the Eurozone, with YiLi Chien, Matteo Leombroni and Hanno Lustig
[Discussion by John Cochrane] - Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic?, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan
II. 安全资产与国际货币体系架构
“慎之慎之，惟惧方得永安。”——威廉·莎士比亚《哈姆雷特》
- Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, Journal of Finance (2021) [Replication Files]
Cited by [Economic Report of the President (2022)] - Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, Review of Economic Studies (2024) [Replication Files]
- The Reserve Supply Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policy, with William Diamond and Yiming Ma, Journal of Financial Economics (2024), Editor’s Choice [Replication Files]
Featured in [NBER Digest] and [Central Banking] - Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Puzzles, with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, and Jialu Sun, Revise and Resubmit at Econometrica
(Old title: Beyond incomplete spanning: Convenience yields and exchange rate disconnect) - China’s Overseas Lending in Global Finance Cycle
- Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View
- Implications of Asset Market Data for Equilibrium Models of Exchange Rates, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig
- Dollar Erosion: Understanding the Loss of Reserve Currency Status, with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, Robert Richmond
- Market Incompleteness and Exchange Rate Spill-over
- Quantitative Tightening with Slow-Moving Capital, with Jialu Sun
III. 国际资产需求与全球资本配置
“天之道，损有余而补不足。人之道则不然，损不足以奉有余。“——老子《道德经》
- Origins of International Factor Structures, with Robert Richmond, Journal of Financial Economics (2023) [Replication Files]
- A Portfolio Approach to Global Imbalances, with Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang, Journal of Finance (2024) [Replication Files]
Best Paper Award at the Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets
Nasdaq Award for the Best Paper on Asset Pricing at Western Finance Association - The Liquidity Premium of Digital Payment Vehicle, with Zefeng Chen, Management Science (2024) [Replication Files]
- The Rest of the World’s Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, IMF Economic Review (2024)
Featured in [MarketWatch], [CentralBanking], [Hutchins Roundup] - Understanding the Strength of the Dollar, with Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang, Journal of Financial Economics (2025) [Replication Files]
Featured in [NBER Digest], [Kellogg Insight]
Yuki Arai Faculty Research Prize, NYU Stern
Best Paper Award at the Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets - International Policy Coordination in a Multisectoral Model of Trade and Health Policy, with Viral Acharya, Robert Richmond and Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, Revise and Resubmit at the Journal of International Economics
Substantial revision of earlier paper Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic - Convenience Lost, with Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang
Featured in [NBER Digest]
IV. 投资与行为心理学
“过去从未消逝，甚至从未过去。”——威廉·福克纳《修女安魂曲》
- Personality Differences and Investment Decision-Making, with Cameron Peng and Hongjun Yan, Journal of Financial Economics (2024) [Replication Files]
Featured in [Wall Street Journal], [Yahoo Finance], [Manager Magazin], [Kellogg Insight] - Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field, with Hongqi Liu, Cameron Peng, and Hongjun Yan, Quarterly Journal of Economics (2025)
Behavioral Finance Best Paper Award at China Financial Research Conference
特邀撰稿
- Safe until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal about Government Debt Safety, VoxEU (2026), Center for Economic and Policy Research
- The Rise of China as an International Lender, VoxEU (2025), Center for Economic and Policy Research
- Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field, VoxEU (2025), Center for Economic and Policy Research
- What Drives Fluctuations in Exchange Rates? An Asset Market Perspective, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, NBER Reporter (2024), National Bureau of Economic Research
- Fiscal Capacity: An Asset Pricing Perspective, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Annual Review of Financial Economics (2023)
- Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, with Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2022), Brookings Institution
- A Valuation Approach to Government Balance Sheet, America’s Fiscal and Economic Outlook (2021), Peterson Foundation
- Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate, with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, AEA Papers and Proceedings (2018), American Economic Association